Wednesday 27 January 2010

Dead cats bounce

There's a well known phrase in financial markets: the dead cat bounce.

If you drop a cat (sorry cat lovers) from a high building it will bounce when it hits the ground. That doesn't make it alive.

Equally, a recovery in markets after a steep fall doesn't mean the market has recovered: it could be a short term bounce before things get worse.

I therefore liked this graphic on Guido, taken from an FT blog poster:

2009 4th quarter GDP growth was estimated at 0.1%, it was announced yesterday, which means the UK recession is over - albeit we are the last G20 to come out of recession, and the one with the most anaemic growth. And 0.1% is so small it could easily be zero.

However, the cynic in me thinks they may have made Q4 look worse than it really was so the GDP growth/fall for Q1 2010, which will probably be announced just before the general election, will look better than it really is.

As I was looking for an article on the announcement to link to above, by the way, I spotted this article about Ireland coming out of recession faster than the UK - which was one of my 2010 questions. I chose the Wall Street Journal for my link to get an international rather than a domestic perspective on our GDP recovery. It wasn't cheerful.

1 comment:

Troy said...

If you ever consider doing your own filming to illustrate your blog you are most welcome to use our neighbour's cats who come and pee in our garden.

[Word verification is - cultrash - I kid you not!]